Analyzing Roy Oswalt

So you don’t panic after a 3-7 start. But maybe you do start thinking about 2009 when your ace gets drilled for the third straight outing and falls to 0-3 with an ERA of 9.00. And your team is 3-8.

It’s like Roy Oswalt is channeling Woody Williams. He didn’t walk any Marlins and he struck out 6, but he also gave up 4 homers and 8 runs in 4 innings.

Cut-and-pasted from Astros.com:

“If I knew I’d tell you,” [Cecil] Cooper said when asked what was wrong with Oswalt. “I have no clue, no clue. I thought this was the best stuff Roy had this year. He had good zip on his fastball, he threw some great breaking balls, his slider was good. I don’t know what happened. I mean, it just must have been location, because they really had some pretty good swings on him. The pitches I thought were pretty good pitches.”

The same things I said earlier about Oswalt remained true in this start. Here’s what he threw in 85 pitches:

55 fastballs, 10 curves, 16 sliders, 1 changeup, 3 unidentified.

The early fastballs were up close to 95 mph but most of them seemed to go 91-92, which is plenty fast. But he’s throwing the slider often and the changeup rarely, like never.

An odd sequence in the third inning: After giving up a single and then getting two quick outs, Oswalt throws 11 consecutive fastballs to 2 batters. Single, home run, game tied. And it got worse from there.

So here’s my solution for Roy Oswalt: More fastballs. More changeups. Fewer sliders.

The results can’t be worse than what’s happened so far.

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