Submitted for your amusement

“Pudge trade not a white flag for Astros,” it says here.

Uh, about that. Let’s make a list here:

– 10.5 games behind.

– Starting rotation of Oswalt, Wandy, Brian Moehler, Felipe Paulino and Bud Norris.

– Starters including Humberto Quintero and Kaz Matsui.

So, anyway, when Ed Wade says he thinks “we can climb back into things,” I hope he doesn’t actually believe that. I hope he’s thinking that he scored by getting Pudge cheap and turning him into two prospects. I’d be thrilled if he could do something similar with Jose Valverde, except it’s too late to get him cheap. $8 million for a closer — yuck.

Looking at next year, there’s loads of work to do. There are four contracts of significance, and two of them are bad. Carlos Lee has three more years at $18 million per, and Kaz Matsui has one more year at $5 million. Oswalt and Berkman have the other two contracts.

Besides Oswalt and Berkman, there are decent building blocks in Bourn and Pence. There’s going to be a problem at shortstop, and another problem at third base. Maybe Jason Castro will be ready to catch. They might have three starters in Oswalt, Rodriguez and Norris.

Your starting catcher

The wear and tear and age appear to be catching up to Ivan Rodriguez. The Astros signed him as a one-year stopgap — at least I think that was the plan — and the stopgap isn’t holding up so well.

From July 1 until now, Pudge is batting the emptiest .255 you can imagine. 28 hits in 110 at-bats, with 3 walks, 4 runs batted in, 6 doubles and a home run. His on-base percentage has dropped to .280 and his slugging percentage is .382.

One more hole to fill for next year. Not sure Jason Castro will be ready, but there will be a spot available.

Losing eight by nine — not as easy as you think

With their 11-2 loss to the Brewers Friday night, the Astros are pushing into record territory. Friday was the eighth time this year the Astros have been dusted by nine or more, and that’s against no victories of that size.

Since 1962, when the Astros started play, only 12 teams have gone winless in blowouts of that size. They are the 1977 Seattle Mariners, the ‘94 Pirates, the ‘69 Padres, the 2005 Diamondbacks, the 1968 Senators, the 1968 Seattle Pilots, the 2006 Nationals, the 1977 Braves, the 1979 Blue Jays, the 1997 Reds, the 1978 Athletics and the 2005 Orioles.

Here’s the table, courtesy of Baseball Reference:

Rk	Tm	Year	G	W	L	W-L% ▴	RS	RA	pythW-L%
1	SEA	1977	11	0	11	.000	18	139	.023
2	SDP	1969	10	0	10	.000	5	128	.003
3	PIT	1994	10	0	10	.000	19	130	.029
4	ARI	2005	9	0	9	.000	21	133	.033
5	CIN	1997	8	0	8	.000	21	101	.053
6	OAK	1978	8	0	8	.000	12	95	.022
7	WSN	2006	8	0	8	.000	20	100	.050
8	TOR	1979	8	0	8	.000	15	108	.026
9	BAL	2005	8	0	8	.000	13	89	.029
10	WSA	1968	8	0	8	.000	11	95	.019
11	SEP	1969	8	0	8	.000	16	100	.034
12	ATL	1977	8	0	8	.000	27	112	.069
13	HOU	2009	8	0	8	.000	10	93	.014

You might have noticed that none of those teams were good. The ‘77 Mariners were 64-98. The ‘94 Pirates were 53-61 in a strike year, so losing 10 by nine or more is actually an even more remarkable achievement.  That Padres team was 52-110. And the 2005 Diamondbacks were 77-85.

Wandy Rodriguez update

It looks like it’s time for Wandy Rodriguez to give back that slot on the All-Star team that was reserved for him a few weeks ago. His last five outings look like this:

24.2 IP, 14 walks, 26 strikeouts, and 8 home runs.

The Astros lost again to the Rangers last night and lost again to a good team. They are 11-25 against teams with a record of .500 or better this year.

Back within 4 games

I’m still not sure what to make of this streak of recent good play by the Astros, who have won 10 out of 14 and pulled within four games of the division lead. They were nine games behind at the end of May 31.

There is reason to be skeptical. The Astros have scored 57 runs and allowed 53 in those 14 games, which is more likely to generate a 8-6 record than 10-4. Nine of the games were at home. Three of the victories were 2-1. There were two big losses. The opponents were not great, although the Rockies have played well since leaving Houston.

People who haven’t been missed: Kaz Matsui. Man’s batted leadoff in 32 games; his OBP is under .300. The Astros are 11-7 without him.

7-3 homestand

It seems like homestands or road trips often come down to the last game, the one that makes the difference between good and so-so. The Astros’ 7-3 homestand, ending with two wins over a team ahead of them in the standings (I know, all of the teams in the Central are), is quite solid but just one win more than acceptable. Six is the minimum, seven is good, eight and nine are outstanding and 10 is break up the Astros.

Still, they trail by 5 games and the Astros have played 34 home games. Sometimes I count the standings this way: Wins Minus Home Games. By that score, the Astros are -7.

The MLB standings would look like this:

Boston +7, New York +5, Toronto +3, Tampa Bay +1, Baltimore -7.

Detroit +5, Minnesota -3, White Sox -6, Cleveland -2, Kansas City -5.

Texas +4, Seattle 0, Los Angeles Angels +3, Oakland -4.

Philadelphia +9, Mets +2, Atlanta -3, Florida -5, Washington -16.

Milwaukee +5, St. Louis -1, Cincinnati +3, Cubs +3, Astros -7.

Dodgers +8, Giants +4, San Diego -2, Colorado +5, Arizona -8.

Bourn to hit leadoff

Michael Bourn batted leadoff last night, although the lineup card had him batting second and cost the Astros an out. Tonight, apparently, he’ll bat leadoff for real. And with any luck, he’ll stay there for a while.

Cecil Cooper apparently plans to bat Kazuo Matsui second, although I don’t know why. I’d hit him ninth, after the pitcher, and see how that went. He’s not doing much with the bat at all.

Astros are almost average

The Astros now stand 16-18, making those two blown saves by Jose Valverde stand out even more. There’s something about being above .500 that makes a big difference in your outlook.

Still, they started 1-6, so since then they are 15-12. Nothing horrible. Let’s run down the team player by player.

Catcher Ivan Rodriguez: Pleasant surprise. His bat’s been OK after a slow start, certainly an improvement over Brad Ausmus. The Astros have allowed only 13 stolen bases, second lowest in the league behind the Cardinals, against six caught-stealings. I was thinking that was a big change, but it’s not. Teams stole only 47 bases against the Astros last year.

First baseman Lance Berkman: You say he’s in a slump but his contribution has been about average. This reminds me of his 2007 start, when he hit one double in the first two months of the season. He finished that year on-basing .386 and slugging .510.

Second baseman Kazuo Matsui: He hasn’t missed much time with injury. He plays a decent second base. He is not hitting, so naturally he has batted leadoff most of the season because, you know, he’s a veteran and Cecil Cooper doesn’t like to play anyone under 30. He has never been a good hitter, but he’s a little better than he’s been this year.

Third basemen Geoff Blum/Jeff Keppinger: Blum hasn’t done much with the bat, five doubles and no homers. His defense is good. Keppinger kills left-handers but most pitchers throw right-handed.

Shortstop Miguel Tejada: He has played pretty well and obviously Cooper likes him because he has aged so much more quickly than the other players. I’ve written a couple of posts urging Cooper to give him a day off, and Cooper then said he was going to do that, and now there’s a rainout in Chicago so he won’t have to. I still expect a fade, but maybe it won’t be as bad as last year’s was.

Left fielder Carlos Lee: He is hitting the way he normally does, maybe a little better. He is fielding so well that the Astros actually send in an older guy for him as a defensive replacement.

Center fielder Michael Bourn: Tremendous improvement over a year ago. Now has OBP up to .382, which is excellent. Maybe when he turns 30, Cecil Cooper will decide to let him hit leadoff.

Right fielder Hunter Pence: Is it unnerving to you to watch Pence throw? It looks funny to me, like he’s short-arming a basketball shot. But … good player having good season.

Reserve outfielder Darin Erstad: The Astros got picked on for signing him a year ago and he had a perfectly fine reserve-outfielder season. This year he’s doing nothing with the bat.

Reserve outfielder Jason Michaels: No problems.

Reserve infielder Jason Smith: He’s 0-for-21. He has 15 hits in his past 100 at-bats, dating to 2007. Seriously, there’s no one better for the job that he has?

Reserve catchers J.R. Towles and Humberto Quintero: Haven’t played much. They aren’t 30 yet.

Starting pitcher Roy Oswalt: Just OK so far, too many home runs allowed.

Starting pitcher Wandy Rodriguez: Best player on the team. He has been fabulous.

Starting pitcher Mike Hampton: I can see him getting better; he’s had some control and efficiency problems. But I wouldn’t give up on him, and the Astros don’t have anyone better yet.

Starting pitcher Brian Moehler: Obviously he’s been getting mashed but his defense-independent stats are OK. In 16 innings he’s allowed one homer and five walks. He’s struck out 12. His batting average against on balls in play is a whopping .458, which seems likely not to continue. Again, there’s not a pipeline of starting pitchers available.

Starting pitcher Russ Ortiz: 20 walks in 24 innings. Brutal.

Starting pitcher Felipe Paulino: I don’t see him as an effective starter. I still like my idea of splitting the fifth starter job between him and Ortiz. Four innings each, every fifth turn.

A couple of the relievers have been good — Chris Sampson, a favorite of mine, and LaTroy Hawkins. I’d have no problem handing the closer ball to Hawkins if someone would provide any kind of return for Jose Valverde. Geoff Geary tried to pitch hurt, which didn’t work.

It’s very difficult to see them breaking to the upside of 83 wins without a big change. They are competent professional baseball players, for the most part, but most of them are on the wrong side of their primes.

Astros 5, Rockies 3

The Astros followed up that dreadful opening loss at Colorado with a couple of impressive wins. A few notes:

– Wandy Rodriguez really has it going this year. 52 innings, no home runs, 15 walks, 48 strikeouts.

– Geoff Geary went on the disabled list, and not a moment too soon. After he couldn’t finish the ninth inning with a nine-run lead Tuesday night, I looked at his stats on Fangraphs, and a bunch of stuff jumped right out. He normally throws fastballs 66 percent of the time; this year, it’s 48 percent. The fastball speed is off a couple of miles per hour. My quick and uninformed guess is that the fastball was getting hit and he started throwing more curves, and they got hit, too. It’s interesting to me how often a player’s stats will suffer for no obvious reason and then it turns out there’s something physically wrong.

– Michael Bourn stole home. That was the third steal of home in the majors in a very short period. Jacoby Ellsbury got one, Jayson Werth got one and now Bourn, although Bourn’s steal was almost easy, since he took off on a throw to second by the catcher. It was more a matter of alertness than daring. Still, stealing home is the new black.

Rockies 12, Astros 1; a day off for Miguel Tejada

The only good thing to say about losing 12-1 is that you can lose only one game at a time. I was joking a little bit when I said the Astros should rotate that fifth starting pitching slot between Paulino and Ortiz, but why couldn’t they share the slot in a different way? They could both plan to pitch that day. Tell Paulino he’s going the first four innings and Ortiz he’s going the next four. The rest of the bullpen gets the day off if things go well. Just a thought.

I see Miguel Tejada doesn’t need a day off, doesn’t want a day off, is too much of a man to take a day off. However, a smart manager would give him a day off, and Cooper says he plans to.