Roger Clemens’ apology: A great idea

So I read this about Roger Clemens, and I thought to myself:

I’d like to issue a general apology for a lot of unspecified misbehavior. And rather than confining my apology to my past errors, I’d like it to cover future mistakes as well.

A lot of catching up to do

On my part, that is. I haven’t written anything here in a week, and the Astros have been playing well. Maybe I should keep up the non-work.

Anyway, they’ve won 9 games out of 13, and 3 out of 7 since the 6-game winning streak. In that 13-game stretch, they have:

• Cut their divisional deficit from 6 games to 4 games.
• Hit well but not insanely well, scoring 77 runs with a .280/.330/.464.
• Scored consistently, collecting at least 5 runs in 9 of those games and winning 8 of the 9.
• Allowed 54 runs, just a little more than 4 per game. They’ve also held their opponents to 4 runs or less in 9 of those games and won 8 of those 9 games.
• Endured some pretty bad starting pitching. The Astros haven’t had a game score higher than 58 since Roy Oswalt beat the Phillies on  April 16.
  
• Continued to struggle with the leadoff position, where they have an OBP of .270. Michael Bourn homered and had a bunt single last night but also struck out looking twice, but obviously he hasn’t been what they’re hoping for so far.

Astros analysis: Astros 3, Cardinals 2

I’m sitting here watching the bottom of the 9th and thinking I know what will happen: Albert Pujols will win the game.

But … I’m wrong. Albert gets an intentional walk, thanks to Jose Valverde’s crucial strikeout of Rick Ankiel. My position is that intentional walks should be banned, but probably they’re not going to be banned right in the middle of a game. Albert walks.

And I didn’t expect there to be a bottom of the 9th inning anyway. This game reminds me of the game earlier this year in which the Cardinals scored their only 3 in the 9th to tie the Astros, who won in the bottom half.

And the Astros pull a victory from the jaws of defeat. Six wins in a row. Shawn Chacon survived 7 innings with 5H 6 BB 3 SO after a dreadful start in which he allowed 8 baserunners in the first 2 innings. But … gave them a chance to win.

And Darin Erstad chipped in again. I may have to cancel Erstad Watch. Maybe after he draws his first walk.

It’s a conundrum to me

Lance Berkman on his big numbers in Cincinnati: “Statistical anomalies abound.”

Of course, the Astros’ 5-game winning streak could be a statistical anomaly as well. We shall see.

Astros analysis: 4 wins in a row

This report on Astros.com credits the lineup shuffle for the big boost in offense. Honestly, that’s silly. Changing the 3-4-5 from Berkman-Lee-Tejada to Tejada-Berkman-Lee does not improve a team’s run-scoring average by 5 runs per game. Changing the 3-4-5 to Gehrig-Ruth-Bonds wouldn’t add 5 runs per game.

The more likely explanation: Everyone started to hit at once. Hunter Pence has been hitting, Kaz Matsui, even — and I hate to say it — Darin Erstad.

The key to consistent run-scoring is going to be what happens at the top of the order. If Bourn and Matsui get on base, then the weakest point in the lineup becomes Ty Wigginton. It’s been a while since the Astros had six offensively productive spots in their lineup.

Erstad Watch

Ripped from Astros.com:

HOUSTON — Until signing with the Astros, veteran Darin Erstad had played in the big leagues for 13 years, all as a starter.

He signed on with Houston as a backup, knowing he was joining an outfield occupied by three players who wouldn’t need many days off.

The transition has been complicated. The 33-year-old former Gold Glove winner has an entirely different pregame routine, and he’s still acclimating himself to his new role.

“You do the same thing for several years, and then all of a sudden you don’t anymore,” Erstad said. “I’m just playing with some stuff, trying to figure it out. But I understand my role here. I’m just here to help. When a guy goes down, I’ll step in and try to help the team.”

Last year, Erstad played in 87 games for the White Sox. The year before? 40 games with the Angels. The starter days are long gone.

I would have liked to hear Erstad say: “I feel very fortunate to have a job making a million dollars a year.” Who knows? Maybe he did.

Erstad Watch: 26 ABs in 17 games. Hasn’t drawn a walk — OBP .231 — but did have 2 hits against the Padres.

Astros update: Games 20-21

Something you don’t see every day: Jose Valverde batting. The TV guys are suggesting that Valverde was instructed clearly not to do anything. Just stand there and get struck out. And that’s exactly what he did.

Now I’m watching as Valverde tries to close this game (there’s no save) with a 4-run lead … and he does. Astros 11, Padres 7 for a 2-game sweep and a 3-game winning streak, raising the record from 6-12 to 9-12. No call for any complaints.

Valverde got a blown save today without allowing a baserunner. Hard to pin much blame on him for that. And he vultured another win in the process. He has 3. Roy Oswalt has 2 to lead the starters.

How about Doug Brocail? Pitched for the cycle in just 4 at-bats, then got an out before Valverde came in. Interesting that Cooper went straight to Brocail after Backe’s strong start, and now Brocail has a meltdown.

Can someone explain to me the deal on Darin Erstad? My theory is that he hypnotizes his managers — starting with “let Erstad pinch-hit” and working his way up to “start Erstad in center field.” The guy’s hitting .190, and that’s pretty close to his talent level.

Game 19: Astros 6, Rockies 4

And the Astros avoid the sweep, but barely.

Nice outing from Shawn Chacon, again. The guy’s turning out to be quite a find so far, although it’s fair to worry about only 3 strikeouts.

And another nice inning from Wesley Wright, and an actual save from Jose Valverde. Shaky, but a save nonetheless.

Very questionable decision by Cecil Cooper in the 8th. Down by a run with Hunter Pence on first and nobody out, Cooper ordered up a bunt from J.R. Towles, which Towles executed. Except … the Astros’ chances of winning the game went down, from 41 percent to 37 percent. I guess you could say at least Towles didn’t bounce into a double play.

Anyway, it all worked out. The Astros can say they haven’t been swept in a series yet, which is true.

Rockies 3, Astros 2: Game 18 review

I didn’t see Geoff Blum’s alleged double that got called a flyout. Even so, I doubt it was a game-changer. The Astros allowed 15 baserunners Saturday night, so they were fortunate to hold the Rockies to 3 runs.

It is funny how a poor team’s weaknesses get exposed so quickly once the season starts. Here’s a list of the Astros’ weaknesses:

1. Getting on base: I love Michael Bourn and think he will be a good player, and they can’t live without him — they’re barely living with him — in center field. But his OBP is .307, which admittedly is better than they were getting out of the leadoff spot last year, but still is a number that needs to rise 50 points.

2. Defense: Wow, this is an awful defensive team. Here are some defensive categories and the Astros’ ranking in them:

• fewest runs allowed, 84, tied for 11th in the league.
• fewest hits allowed, 181, 15th.
• fewest hits minus home runs, 157, 14th.
• fewest home runs allowed, 24, 15th.
• batting average against, .288, 14th.
• OBP against, .338, 13th.
• SLG against, .468, 16th.
• SLGBIP against (slugging percentage on balls in play), .410, 13th.

Here’s a table showing NL pitching as batting statistics, thanks to Baseball-Reference.com with a few tweaks on my part.

But this is the gamble that Ed Wade took — that the offense would be strong enough to overcome some weak defense, and that the division would be weak enough that he might luck into a playoff spot. And so far the gamble is not paying off — he may well have already lost it. The offense is not scoring with any consistency, and the division is turning out to have a few good teams in it so far. Baseball Prospectus has the Astros’ chances of making the playoffs at less than 6 percent, already.

3. Offense: Cecil Cooper is tinkering with the 3-4-5 guys. I honestly have no idea why this would change anything. What I would do: Pull a page from the Cardinals’ book and hit the pitcher eighth. Move Bourn or Matsui into the 9 hole, and bat Pence second. Hit Towles sixth — it looks like he can actually hit. So 1-9 the order would look like this: Bourn-Pence-Berkman-Lee-Tejada-Towles-third baseman-pitcher-Matsui. Or you could hit Towles second. So far he looks like a poor man’s Dwight Evans, and Dwight Evans would be in the Hall of Fame if it were up to me.

Game 17: Rockies 11, Astros 5

Pretty grisly stuff from Minute Maid Park Friday night. Astros now 6-11.

There’s not much point in analyzing a game that was essentially lost in the top of the 1st inning. By the time the Rockies took the field, they’d driven their win probability from 50 percent to 91.1 percent.

You start to see at this point how much defense matters, especially when Chris Sampson is pitching. Sampson has 3 strikeouts in 11.3 innings this year, and that’s how many strikeouts he’s going to get. He can’t afford to walk anybody, like Scott Podsednik twice in the first inning, and he needs his defense to turn grounders into outs. So in 10 batters he didn’t do his part and the defense didn’t do its part.

Carlos Lee sort of waved at Chris Iannetta’s double to left that scored 2 runs. I didn’t see the ball closely but it looked like a fleet left fielder might have had it. If it’s caught, it’s a 4-run inning rather than a 6-run disaster.

The Astros’ defensive efficiency is .670, and here’s a new statistic for you: Slugging percentage on balls in play, essentially taking home runs out of slugging percentage. To compute this, add (singles + doubles + 2 * triples), then divide by (ab - so - hr - sf). The Astros rank 13th in the league in SLGBIP, basically meaning they give up a lot of hits and a fair number of them become doubles and triples. The NL average SLGBIP is .380; the Astros’ number is .411. (Here’s a full chart.) The Giants and the Marlins are the worst in the league at this, actually.

It was good to see Hunter Pence get 3 hits.