Wandy Rodriguez update

It looks like it’s time for Wandy Rodriguez to give back that slot on the All-Star team that was reserved for him a few weeks ago. His last five outings look like this:

24.2 IP, 14 walks, 26 strikeouts, and 8 home runs.

The Astros lost again to the Rangers last night and lost again to a good team. They are 11-25 against teams with a record of .500 or better this year.

Back within 4 games

I’m still not sure what to make of this streak of recent good play by the Astros, who have won 10 out of 14 and pulled within four games of the division lead. They were nine games behind at the end of May 31.

There is reason to be skeptical. The Astros have scored 57 runs and allowed 53 in those 14 games, which is more likely to generate a 8-6 record than 10-4. Nine of the games were at home. Three of the victories were 2-1. There were two big losses. The opponents were not great, although the Rockies have played well since leaving Houston.

People who haven’t been missed: Kaz Matsui. Man’s batted leadoff in 32 games; his OBP is under .300. The Astros are 11-7 without him.

7-3 homestand

It seems like homestands or road trips often come down to the last game, the one that makes the difference between good and so-so. The Astros’ 7-3 homestand, ending with two wins over a team ahead of them in the standings (I know, all of the teams in the Central are), is quite solid but just one win more than acceptable. Six is the minimum, seven is good, eight and nine are outstanding and 10 is break up the Astros.

Still, they trail by 5 games and the Astros have played 34 home games. Sometimes I count the standings this way: Wins Minus Home Games. By that score, the Astros are -7.

The MLB standings would look like this:

Boston +7, New York +5, Toronto +3, Tampa Bay +1, Baltimore -7.

Detroit +5, Minnesota -3, White Sox -6, Cleveland -2, Kansas City -5.

Texas +4, Seattle 0, Los Angeles Angels +3, Oakland -4.

Philadelphia +9, Mets +2, Atlanta -3, Florida -5, Washington -16.

Milwaukee +5, St. Louis -1, Cincinnati +3, Cubs +3, Astros -7.

Dodgers +8, Giants +4, San Diego -2, Colorado +5, Arizona -8.

Bourn to hit leadoff

Michael Bourn batted leadoff last night, although the lineup card had him batting second and cost the Astros an out. Tonight, apparently, he’ll bat leadoff for real. And with any luck, he’ll stay there for a while.

Cecil Cooper apparently plans to bat Kazuo Matsui second, although I don’t know why. I’d hit him ninth, after the pitcher, and see how that went. He’s not doing much with the bat at all.

Astros are almost average

The Astros now stand 16-18, making those two blown saves by Jose Valverde stand out even more. There’s something about being above .500 that makes a big difference in your outlook.

Still, they started 1-6, so since then they are 15-12. Nothing horrible. Let’s run down the team player by player.

Catcher Ivan Rodriguez: Pleasant surprise. His bat’s been OK after a slow start, certainly an improvement over Brad Ausmus. The Astros have allowed only 13 stolen bases, second lowest in the league behind the Cardinals, against six caught-stealings. I was thinking that was a big change, but it’s not. Teams stole only 47 bases against the Astros last year.

First baseman Lance Berkman: You say he’s in a slump but his contribution has been about average. This reminds me of his 2007 start, when he hit one double in the first two months of the season. He finished that year on-basing .386 and slugging .510.

Second baseman Kazuo Matsui: He hasn’t missed much time with injury. He plays a decent second base. He is not hitting, so naturally he has batted leadoff most of the season because, you know, he’s a veteran and Cecil Cooper doesn’t like to play anyone under 30. He has never been a good hitter, but he’s a little better than he’s been this year.

Third basemen Geoff Blum/Jeff Keppinger: Blum hasn’t done much with the bat, five doubles and no homers. His defense is good. Keppinger kills left-handers but most pitchers throw right-handed.

Shortstop Miguel Tejada: He has played pretty well and obviously Cooper likes him because he has aged so much more quickly than the other players. I’ve written a couple of posts urging Cooper to give him a day off, and Cooper then said he was going to do that, and now there’s a rainout in Chicago so he won’t have to. I still expect a fade, but maybe it won’t be as bad as last year’s was.

Left fielder Carlos Lee: He is hitting the way he normally does, maybe a little better. He is fielding so well that the Astros actually send in an older guy for him as a defensive replacement.

Center fielder Michael Bourn: Tremendous improvement over a year ago. Now has OBP up to .382, which is excellent. Maybe when he turns 30, Cecil Cooper will decide to let him hit leadoff.

Right fielder Hunter Pence: Is it unnerving to you to watch Pence throw? It looks funny to me, like he’s short-arming a basketball shot. But … good player having good season.

Reserve outfielder Darin Erstad: The Astros got picked on for signing him a year ago and he had a perfectly fine reserve-outfielder season. This year he’s doing nothing with the bat.

Reserve outfielder Jason Michaels: No problems.

Reserve infielder Jason Smith: He’s 0-for-21. He has 15 hits in his past 100 at-bats, dating to 2007. Seriously, there’s no one better for the job that he has?

Reserve catchers J.R. Towles and Humberto Quintero: Haven’t played much. They aren’t 30 yet.

Starting pitcher Roy Oswalt: Just OK so far, too many home runs allowed.

Starting pitcher Wandy Rodriguez: Best player on the team. He has been fabulous.

Starting pitcher Mike Hampton: I can see him getting better; he’s had some control and efficiency problems. But I wouldn’t give up on him, and the Astros don’t have anyone better yet.

Starting pitcher Brian Moehler: Obviously he’s been getting mashed but his defense-independent stats are OK. In 16 innings he’s allowed one homer and five walks. He’s struck out 12. His batting average against on balls in play is a whopping .458, which seems likely not to continue. Again, there’s not a pipeline of starting pitchers available.

Starting pitcher Russ Ortiz: 20 walks in 24 innings. Brutal.

Starting pitcher Felipe Paulino: I don’t see him as an effective starter. I still like my idea of splitting the fifth starter job between him and Ortiz. Four innings each, every fifth turn.

A couple of the relievers have been good — Chris Sampson, a favorite of mine, and LaTroy Hawkins. I’d have no problem handing the closer ball to Hawkins if someone would provide any kind of return for Jose Valverde. Geoff Geary tried to pitch hurt, which didn’t work.

It’s very difficult to see them breaking to the upside of 83 wins without a big change. They are competent professional baseball players, for the most part, but most of them are on the wrong side of their primes.

Astros 5, Rockies 3

The Astros followed up that dreadful opening loss at Colorado with a couple of impressive wins. A few notes:

– Wandy Rodriguez really has it going this year. 52 innings, no home runs, 15 walks, 48 strikeouts.

– Geoff Geary went on the disabled list, and not a moment too soon. After he couldn’t finish the ninth inning with a nine-run lead Tuesday night, I looked at his stats on Fangraphs, and a bunch of stuff jumped right out. He normally throws fastballs 66 percent of the time; this year, it’s 48 percent. The fastball speed is off a couple of miles per hour. My quick and uninformed guess is that the fastball was getting hit and he started throwing more curves, and they got hit, too. It’s interesting to me how often a player’s stats will suffer for no obvious reason and then it turns out there’s something physically wrong.

– Michael Bourn stole home. That was the third steal of home in the majors in a very short period. Jacoby Ellsbury got one, Jayson Werth got one and now Bourn, although Bourn’s steal was almost easy, since he took off on a throw to second by the catcher. It was more a matter of alertness than daring. Still, stealing home is the new black.

Rockies 12, Astros 1; a day off for Miguel Tejada

The only good thing to say about losing 12-1 is that you can lose only one game at a time. I was joking a little bit when I said the Astros should rotate that fifth starting pitching slot between Paulino and Ortiz, but why couldn’t they share the slot in a different way? They could both plan to pitch that day. Tell Paulino he’s going the first four innings and Ortiz he’s going the next four. The rest of the bullpen gets the day off if things go well. Just a thought.

I see Miguel Tejada doesn’t need a day off, doesn’t want a day off, is too much of a man to take a day off. However, a smart manager would give him a day off, and Cooper says he plans to.

Astros 30-game review

The Astros have played 31 games, 32 if you count the unfinished game against the Nationals. Let’s have a quick review:

– The bats have come around a little bit. Miguel Tejada hit a couple of home runs, Ivan Rodriguez has his slugging percentage up near .500. Lance Berkman hasn’t started hitting yet, and obviously he has this wrist problem now. The guy with the wrist injury leads the team in home runs with seven.

– Carlos Lee has been raking. His contract is still heavy, but he’s playing the way he plays with an OPS of .950. Hunter Pence has had a good year.

– Michael Bourn has played well enough and gotten on base enough to take the leadoff spot, and Cecil Cooper won’t give it to him. Instead the primary leadoff man has been Kaz Matsui, who has been the worst hitter on the team. One reason the Astros are still near the league bottom in runs scored.

– Defensively the Astros are about average. The pitching has been near the league average in walks allowed, home runs allowed and strikeouts. It doesn’t seem like it, but it’s true.

– No days off for Miguel Tejada yet.

Felipe Paulino joins the rotation; Russ Ortiz goes to bullpen

Cecil Cooper has moved Russ Ortiz out of the rotation and Felipe Paulino into it, based on Ortiz’ four starts and Paulino’s three.

Ortiz hasn’t been very good, but he hasn’t had that much opportunity. He has walked too many guys, 20 in 21 innings. Cooper’s decision reminds me of his decision to bat Ivan Rodriguez second, which lasted two games. He announced a decision, it didn’t work immediately, and he made an adjustment rather than giving it a chance to work.

Paulino has never pitched more than 126 innings in a season, so it seems unlikely he would make it through the season as the fifth starter. Maybe Cooper ought to rotate them in that slot.

Astros starting pitching: Wandy Rodriguez is only one man!

                      IP     HR    BB    IBB    SO    FIP
Wandy Rodriguez*      45      0    15      1    37    2.56
Roy Oswalt            38      7    12      1    24    5.28
Mike Hampton*         33      3    15      1    26    4.17
Russ Ortiz            21.1    1    20      0    15    5.24
Brian Moehler          9      1     4      0     6    4.64

This table shows the performance of the Astros’ starting pitching to date. I’ve left out Felipe Paulino’s three spot starts. FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is a statistical way of creating a number similar to ERA but based entirely on things pitchers can control — walks, homers and strikeouts.

Not much doubt who the star of the staff is at this point, and it’s not Roy Oswalt. Oswalt had an ugly start last year, too, remember. He was on pace to give up 7,000 home runs for a while, but after the first seven starts, he stopped giving up home runs, allowing only 14 for the rest of the year. In fact, Oswalt’s first seven starts last year were quite similar to his first seven this year, and he was excellent for the rest of the year. So there’s some hope there.

Wandy Rodriguez has been one of the best pitchers in the league, though. He did a near-perfect job against the Padres, going eight innings with no walks, no homers and seven strikeouts.  It also makes clear that the gap-plugging job that is the starting rotation needs some improvement quickly.

One of Brian Moehler, Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz needs to get better. The best bet is Hampton, who has been within an out or two of turning in a strong starton a couple of occasions only to see the game unravel in the sixth or seventh inning. He’s had only one dreadful start. He’s walked a few guys too many, and he’s had only one really good start. But you can see how a pitcher coming back from an injury might need some time to figure things out again.